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What a Difference a Star Striker Makes

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14 March 2012

How would the Premier League look if you took away all the goals from each team’s top league goal scorer? Who would suffer and who would benefit? Are there any teams that are over reliant on their most prolific marksman and who is best at sharing the goals amongst the whole squad?

Well I got my calculator out, fired up Excel, crunched the numbers and hurt my head. With just ten games left this alternative league table certainly came up with a few surprising results.

*Editor’s note – please excuse the formatting, it was the best I could do!*

                                                                                        W            D             L             PTS

1. Manchester United                                                                21             4              3              65

2.Manchester City                                                                      20            4              4              64

3. Tottenham Hotspur                                                               16            4              8               52

4. Chelsea                                                                                      14            9              5               51

5. Liverpool                                                                                   12           10             6               46

6. Sunderland                                                                              13             6              9              45

7. Newcastle United                                                                     11             9              9             42

8. West Brom                                                                                10            11             7               41

9. Everton                                                                                      11             6            11               39

10. Norwich City                                                                           9             10            9               37

11. Arsenal                                                                                       9              9            10              36

12. Swansea City                                                                            9              8            11               35

13. Stoke City                                                                                 9              8           11                35

14. Fulham                                                                                      8              8           12                32

15. Aston Villa                                                                               6              13          10                31

16. QPR                                                                                            5             11           12                 26

17. Wigan Athletic                                                                        4              9            15                 21

18. Blackburn Rovers                                                                    4             9            15                 21

19. Bolton Wanderers                                                                   6             2            20                20

20. Wolves                                                                                      4             8              16               20

Pos
Team
W
L
D
Pts
1.
Manchester United 
21
4
3
65
2.
Manchester City
20
4
4
64
3.
Tottenham Hotspur
16
4
8
52
4.
Chelsea
14
9
5
51
5.
Liverpool
12
10
6
46
6.
Sunderland
13
6
9
45
7.
Newcastle
11
9
9
42
8.
West Brom
10
11
7
41
9.
Everton
11
6
11
39
10.
Norwich City
9
10
9
37
11.
Arsenal 
9
9
10
36
12.
Swansea City
9
8
11
35
13.
Stoke City
9
8
11
35
14.
Fulham
8
8
12
32
15.
Aston Villa 
6
13
10
31
16.
QPR
5
11
12
26
17.
Wigan Athletic
4
9
15
21
18.
Blackburn Rovers
4
9
15
21
19.
Bolton Wanderers 
6
2
20
20
20.
Wolves
4
8
16
20


 

*Note: Everton, Liverpool and Wigan all had equal top scorers. To limit it to one scorer I selected the one I deemed most important to the team. So Liverpool – Luis Suarez, Everton = Leighton Baines and Wigan = Jordi Gomez.

The team that stands out most is Arsenal. Without the goals of Robin Van Persie, they would be 11th in this table. A massive 15 points off the Champions League places, 16 points away from their North London rivals Spurs and far away from having any pride. 11th with 10 games left, Arsene Wenger would be looking over his shoulder. There is no other team so reliant on their top scorer in this alternative table, and with no other Arsenal players reaching double figures in the league Gunners fans must be happy that he hasn’t suffered one of the injuries that have blighted his career.

In the title race nothing much has changed. United still lead City by just a point, but both teams have just a couple of points less. Tottenham are still third and closely followed by a London club, Chelsea who are fourth by five points. Maybe the recently departed Mr. Villas-Boas was right that Chelsea could cope without Frank Lampard because, despite his 10 league goals, the club would be in a somewhat better position in this table.

Liverpool may well have hoped that football’s anti-hero Luis Suarez had been banned for longer, as without his goals The Reds would be two places and four points better off and with a decent shot of making the Champions League.

At the wrong end of the table the bottom five stay the same but Wigan benefit from their top scorer only having three goals in the league. Because of how un-reliant they are on a predatory front man and the way the goals are shared between the team they would rise a little bit, making the few fans that bother turning up a bit happier.

Blackburn on the other hand would fall right into it. Despite having a team that is so often poor, they do have Yakubu who has scored an astonishing (considering his team’s form) 13 league goals. With him they would be far better off, and while not out of a relegation battle, they’d certainly be in a more favourable position.

QPR would also be better off in this version of the league table, finding themselves five points clear of the chasing pack.

Of course this isn’t an exact science, and with many of the teams the rest of the team would go some way to making up the difference that the top scorer has left behind but it does show which teams are over reliant on that one man up front and which can do without should the worst happen.

  • Rob Reckless

    How can Liverpool be better off with fewer goals??

    • Kieferwooder

      Because demba bas goals are gone from newcastle as are van persies

      • Rob Reckless

        See, now that makes sense, but the line is that Liverpool would rather have had Suarez banned for longer, that just isn’t the case.

  • Icallbullshit

    fuckin bullshit. even without rvp they would not be 11th. 

    • http://noonebutabloghead.wordpress.com/ David Stringer

      With the fact Steve’s only made a simple change, I think it’s implied it’s an oversimplified look at the impact the top scorer has.
      The fact that a lot of teams barely move while Arsenal plummet is, I think, interesting.

      • Steve Norman

        Well Icallbullshit considering I went through every fixture and removed each teams top scorers goals and then applied the new results to a league table, yes Arsenal would be 11th.

        A lot of people have taken this far too seriously, I stated in the article it’s not an exact science. It’s a bit of fun that take a look at which teams are over reliant on one player.

        For instance Rooney has scored a shed load for United but they’d still be top without his goals.

        • Hmmmm

          and what about assists by the top scorers? have u taken them into consideration?

  • Big Dave

    what a load of shite…

  • http://twitter.com/BornOffsideBlog Born Offside

    Arsenal fans then gents?

  • Sdf

    arsenal isnt 11th loool

  • Sdf

    arsenal isnt 11th loool

  • tony inchpractice

    if you took walcott out of arsenal’s team, they’d probably also be down around 11th considering he’s set up around 10 of his  26 goals this season. which is why it’s so stupid everyone keeps calling arsenal a one-man team.

  • tony inchpractice

    if you took walcott out of arsenal’s team, they’d probably also be down around 11th considering he’s set up around 10 of his  26 goals this season. which is why it’s so stupid everyone keeps calling arsenal a one-man team.

  • ghostmau5

    Its just the way the team is built, Arsenal and Barcelona are much more alike than most people like to think. Look at Arsenal, RVP is the top goalscorer with 26 league goals with Walcott a distant 2nd with only 5 goals. Then look at Barca, Messi leading the team with 34 league goals with with Fabregas and Xavi tied for 2nd with 9 goals. In fact the gap is bigger at Barca then at Arsenal. Does anyone believe that if you take out Messi, that Barca would suddenly slip into the bottom half of the table!?

  • le

    preterm birth I see = (bornoffside)

  • Footballsolvesallproblems

    This is as dumb as hypothetical arguments get..

  • jimmy

    this makes Soooo much sense doesnt it… seeing as if van persie wasn’t in the team then obviously walcot or another striker would take up the slack … btw arsenal play 4-3-3 in almost all games so obviously the central player is in the best position to shoot all the time…